Liquid stone all seminars

Date: Monday, November 5, 2018 Time: 3:00-4:00 pm Place: 1-123

Fengdi Guo

Abstract: Efficient budget allocation models could help improve pavement network performance within a limited budget. Current models mainly use benefit cost ratio to evaluate treatments. This approach, while convenient, is limited in current implementations because they only consider the benefits of a current treatment and assume a know, fixed future. A new approach called the probabilistic treatment path dependence (PTPD) model has been developed, in which treatment decisions consider benefits of each possible current action, the likelihood of future conditions (e.g., road deterioration, prices), and the optimal future actions to take given an uncertain future. This presentation introduces this new PTPD model in detail and also presents the benefits of incorporating uncertainties and treatment path dependence by comparing PTPD with conventional benefit cost ratio model.